How to predict seasonal product sales

1.Anticipate ideas
For seasonal products, the weighted moving average of the same month is generally used to forecast sales volume.

2.The specific logic is as follows:

▪️ Find the sales volume of the same period in the past 3 years and calculate the weighted average according to different weights to get the forecast sales volume.

▪️ Ask a professional manager or use a third-party tool to make a judgment on this year's consumption trends and correct the sales forecasts that have been made

▪️ Compare the actual sales volume of the past months with the forecast sales volume, calculate the error rate, that is, the sales increase, and correct the remaining months

3.The formula required is as follows:

▪️Year-on-year forecast monthly sales = (Month 1*1+ Month 2*2+ Month 3*3) /6

▪️Error = (actual sales - predicted sales)/predicted sales

▪️Seasonal product sales correction formula = (Month 1*1+ Month 2*2+ Month 3*3) /6*[(actual sales - forecast sales)/forecast sales +1]